Portugal is among the Top 8

Ratings are always so confusing. Why not start our own top 10 most likely to win?

Posted from  United States

I also have no clue how they imagine France has currently higher chances than the rest. I don’t even think they have a better chance than the Czechs. It’d be sooooooo funny to see SWI beat FRA… IVC beat ARG, ARG beat HOL, HOL beat SM (just to shut them up with that “who’s got the biggest” talk in the blog next door) and SM beat IVC – there… What would this give?

Posted from  Netherlands

Brazil
Italy
Holland
Argentina
Portugal
Germany (real doubts)
England
Czech Rep.
Spain
Croatia

Oh and somewhere after 10th:

France

Don’t ask me to explain the list.

Posted from  United States

Please explain the list

Posted from  United States

[...] Our Portugal blog tipped me to this table (click on it to make it readable) in The Times newspaper that shows the percentage chance that the various World Cup participants have to advance from their group, get to the quarterfinals, etc. The most startling finding is that France have the best chance of winning the tournament. This might be news to just about everyone, including the French. I decided to do some poking around to see how these numbers are calculated by the Decision Technology group at the University of Warwick. I could go on for hours explaining their computer models, but frankly I don’t understand any of it. Go ahead and have a look for yourself and maybe you can explain how these are the top ten teams most likely to win the World Cup. [...]

Posted from  United States

France is on a easy group and will face a opponent from another easy group at the round of 16. So, that’s the prolem with math. Once their chances to get to the quater finals are so high it remains high even when they face better opponents on the next phases.

Top 10, without certain order:

Argentina
Brazil
England
Germany
France
Italy
Netherlands
Sweden
Czech Republic
Ukraine

Posted from  United States

Man…you left out Portugal in the Portugal blog!

Posted from  United States

I don’t see how a teams quality isn’t directly related to their chances. France don’t have the quality of the Dutch, England or even Germany.

Brazil
Netherlands
Germany
England
Argentina
Italy
France
Spain
Czech Republic
Portugal

Posted from  United States

Mike, I think the theory is that 2 or 3 quality teams in one group would mean that automatically 1 quality team will be out? So their chances are slim, even though a much less talented team in an easier group might have a better chance of proceeding because the opposition is easier. Does that make any sense?
But this logic would only apply to the group and first knock-out stages. After that one would think it would rest on quality alone (luck being the same of course)??
So, based on that logic, France, Germany and Spain have an advantage (easier route thus higher percentage of preceeding). Where as Italy, Argentina and the Dutch arn’t so lucky…
Makes for a good discussion though.. Great post Luis!

Posted from  Canada

Ya, great post. It’s pretty interesting to think about that I guess. Crazy Canuck with your plausable explanations…

Posted from  United States

PEOPLE,

the Eurosport voting for POR1966 is going TODAY:

http://www.eurosport.com/football/world-cup1/2006/wcteamcentury.shtml#

Just go there and vote.

Posted from  Netherlands