What’s next?

March 27th, 2006 | by: Luis Paulo |

I would like to take a time to analyze Portugal’s possible opponent at the round of 16. I’m sorry if this seems a little arrogant but Portugal should be banished from football if they loose to either Angola or Iran. I really like them but I can name at least 15 teams that are not at this World Cup and would still beat them easily.

Portugal’s draw could be called lucky. However, that luck will quickly change in the round of 16, when having to face an opponent who overcame the Death Group.

Argentina is the team to be afraid of. They might not go all the way in this World Cup but if they survive their group they won’t loose easily after that. They have a midfield talented enough to let Pablo Aimar on the bench. The history in this derby would appoint Argentina as the favorite with 4 victories, 1 draw and only 1 defeat. However, their last game was in 1972, when most of the players that would be in Germany weren’t even born yet.

06/29/1972 – Portugal 3 x 1 Argentina
05/31/1964 – Portugal 0 x 2 Argentina
06/04/1961 – Portugal 0 x 2 Argentina
11/28/1954 – Portugal 1 x 3 Argentina
12/14/1952 – Portugal 1 x 3 Argentina
04/01/1928 – Portugal 0 x 0 Argentina

Ivory Coast shouldn’t be that scary. At least in comparison to the others. Their last game against Spain showed that they still have a very fragile defense and they might fall against a well prepared team. However, you can’t predict how they will behave in the World Cup. Africans tend to loose after great appearances and my guess is that they will loose to Portugal if they qualify for the round of 16.

Portugal and Ivory Coast have never faced each other before.

And then comes Serbia & Montenegro. Portugal seems to have problems with very defensive teams (remember Greece?). They would be a very dangerous opponent for Portugal because they would face them as the favorite and would have the obligation to win. With only Pauleta, Portugal might have several problems to score against them. If it comes to this, I would bet on Serbia.

Portugal has only faced Serbia when it was still part of the Yugoslavia

06/02/1984 – Portugal 2 x 3 Yugoslavia
05/22/1960 – Yugoslavia 5 x 1 Portugal
05/08/1960 – Portugal 2 x 1 Yugoslavia
05/03/1932 – Portugal 3 x 2 Yugoslavia
05/29/1928 – Portugal 2 x 1 Yugoslavia

When it comes to the Netherlands, Portugal seems to do just fine. It has been 15 years (or 7 games) since their last defeat. Actually, that was the only time they ever lost. Their last game was in Euro04 semi-finals and Portugal made its way through. Ever since, the Netherlands has improved their game, but so did Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo and Deco are more experienced and I believe that Portugal would win again.

06/30/2004 – Portugal 2 x 1 Netherlands
04/30/2003 – Netherlands 1 x 1 Portugal
03/28/2001 – Portugal 2 x 2 Netherlands
10/11/2000 – Netherlands 0 x 2 Portugal
02/10/1999 – Portugal 0 x 0 Netherlands
02/22/1995 – Netherlands 0 x 1 Portugal
02/12/1992 – Portugal 2 x 0 Netherlands
10/16/1991 – Netherlands 1 x 0 Portugal
10/17/1990 – Portugal 1 x 0 Netherlands

In the end, my bet says that Portugal has a 50-50 chance to go to the quarter-finals. But no matter who they face after the first phase, it would be a great game.

Tags: Argentina, Netherlands, Portugal, Predictions, Serbia and Montenegro

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Comments

By The Blog Goes On 03.27 - FIFA World Cup 2006 - World Cup 2006 Blog | March 27th, 2006 at 11:50 am

[...] Be prepared is the motto for Portugal as it plans ahead to the round of 16 a mere 2.5 months before playing a World Cup match (Portugal Blog) [...]

Posted from United States

By Lyle | March 27th, 2006 at 12:43 pm

Portgual has it hard. It gets to play somebody from Group C. They might go out early even if they win their group.

Posted from United States

By Pedro P | March 27th, 2006 at 1:08 pm

Even worse that this, is the fact that if BRA goes all the way to the last 4, and if POR also reaches the last 4, the chance of them meeting is very big. Check it out…

By Pedro P | March 27th, 2006 at 1:16 pm

Another thing I wish to stress once again, is the SURPRISE effect. Consider this:

EC04 we were together with Spain, Greece and Russia. Everybody said it would surelly be POR & SPA or RUS, because Greece didn’t stand a chance. We all saw what happened.

WC02 we were with Korea, USA and POL. Everybody said it was “customized” for Portugal and the hosts. We all saw what happened…

EC00 we were with England, Germany and Romania, so we were doomed from the start. We went through as group leaders, ENG and GER went home…

SO, I mean, I don’t find what you said to be arrogant. I’m just too used to things not going as planned…

On the positive side, IF we DO go through as group leaders and reach the knockout stage, I’m pretty sure we have the potential to go as far as any other, including Brazil. And I still fear more Italy than Brazil, simply because of the way the two teams can “fit” to each other.

In the knockout stage, pretty much anything can happen.

By Luis Paulo | March 27th, 2006 at 2:13 pm

Pedro. The diffence here is that Greece, Korea and USA are much better teams then Iran or Angola. Hey, in 94 South Arabia defeated Belgium. Surprises sometimes happens. But Portugal has faced too many surprise already. Iran was the third in the most week qualify. Angola couldn’t even take Congo in the last African Cup of Nations. If Portugal gets surprise once again, they do not deserve our trust anymore. They should had learn that already.

By Pedro P | March 27th, 2006 at 2:29 pm

Luis, all of this is true. Believe me, I don’t wish to bring a negative cloud over the heads of all of us. It is also true that, with the exception of EC00 – where we had a coach who actually had an own style and its own views and the results were there – NOW it’s the only time we have somebody and the steer that has shown all its worth.

BUT STILL…

“Cautela e caldos de galinha nunca fizeram mal a ninguém” = Caution and chicken soap never made anybody no harm… And we must stay real no mattter what and NEVER NEVER underestimate our oponents. The world’s full of other cats, as eager as we, to get the big mug!

By Luis Paulo | March 27th, 2006 at 2:46 pm

Here in Brazil we say “Gato escaldado tem medo até de água fria” = “Scalded cat get scared even by cold water”. And that is what see in Portugal. They had so many unexpected defeats that they are afraid of anything.

For the last WC experience Portugal should be aware but yet confident. It’s that “behave like winners” that we were talking about before. Portugal has to step in the field respecting his opponents but knowing that they have the obligation to win those games.

By Pedro P | March 27th, 2006 at 3:29 pm

We also say that in here.

I would say they are affraid of winning… But not of facing the worse of the worse.

This is also what I mean. Never underestimate your oponnent, know you have to WANT IT and know what you can and what you cannot do. But NEVER loose faith and believe. Look at the german teams… They can be loosing 10-0, pouring rain. Will they start whinning? No! They run and run and try and try till they fall. And they’ll be the last to fall. The obligation you mention, comes from knowing your own value and the other’s as well.

OK, I’m getting philosophical here…

By Luis | March 28th, 2006 at 11:05 am

We must understand that the dark cloud is our national discourse. It’s our unique trial. To be Portuguese is to fight on against the odds — with our backs to the sea and surrounded by enemies.
We have learned enough lessons. We have the perfect balance of experience and raw youthful talent. We have a better leader. In my opinion, every team has a 50 – 50 chance going in, but this time it is there for us to take. The conditions are right. Euro2004 hurt, but it made me more hopeful then ever that our moment has almost arrived. Forca Portugal!

Posted from United States

By Luis Paulo | March 28th, 2006 at 2:08 pm

I don’t belive that every team has a 50 – 50 chance. Sorry but that’s normally the looser speach. It’s important to know what you can and can’t do. Figure out your goals and try to overcame then. But you need to know what are your odds so you can adapet your game by the following opponents.

By Luis | March 28th, 2006 at 2:33 pm

Sorry I wasn’t trying to be technical here. Just a basic observation. Once you get past the group stage, anything can happen. I’m all for preparation and analysis, but how many teams have seen their plans fall apart moments after the opening whistle.

Posted from United States

By Luis Paulo | March 28th, 2006 at 2:39 pm

There is no need to be sorry at all. I unterstood you point. But I also disagree with it. No predictions can be sure. I only said that was a 50-50 chance because I predict that Portugal would beat Ivory Coast and Netherlands but not Argentina and Serbia. Of course, that is just a prediction. When you are guessing, you gotta take some chances. I could be wrong. It’s very hard to predict games like that where you have two fine teams but, I had to choose one.

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